{"id":94,"date":"2025-12-20T07:24:55","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T07:24:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/?p=94"},"modified":"2025-12-20T07:24:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T07:24:55","slug":"runway-or-run-away-forecast-burn-vs-roadmap-in-10-minutes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/runway-or-run-away-forecast-burn-vs-roadmap-in-10-minutes\/","title":{"rendered":"Runway or Run Away? Forecast Burn vs. Roadmap in 10 Minutes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

TL;DR (\u2248 95 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Founders run out of cash for only one reason\u2014the roadmap is longer than the runway<\/strong>.
Below is a 10-minute Google-Sheet + Python workflow that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Imports your Stripe, QuickBooks, or Excel ledger.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Buckets cost into Headcount, Cloud, GTM, Misc.<\/strong>
    <\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Calculates runway under three burn scenarios<\/em> (base, stretch, worst).
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Maps the burn curve to your sprint roadmap and flags the \u201cred zone\u201d 90 days early.
    <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The sheet is pre-wired to SteadCAST<\/strong> so your Micro-GCC squad\u2019s velocity updates the forecast every Friday\u2014no CFO needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why \u201cCash \/ Monthly Burn\u201d Lies to You (\u2248 160 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

    Classic runway formula:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ini<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    CopyEdit<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Runway = Cash on hand \u00f7 Average monthly burn<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Problems:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Burn isn\u2019t flat.<\/strong> New hires, AWS credits expiry, marketing pushes.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Roadmap is lumpy.<\/strong> Some sprints need Flex DevOps or paid APIs.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • DCA<\/strong> (days cash ahead) means nothing if Sprint 7 demo<\/em> slips a week past investor meetings.
      <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      What you need is a time-phased burn model<\/strong> with scenario bands<\/em> and a roadmap overlay<\/strong> so you can answer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u201cCan we hit the Day 90 MVP AND still have $250 k buffer for the next fundraise?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The 4-Bucket Burn Model (\u2248 180 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
      Bucket<\/strong><\/td>Formula<\/strong><\/td>Notes \/ Benchmarks<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
      Headcount<\/strong><\/td>\u03a3 Dev + PM + Ops salary * 1.25 (tax\/benefits)<\/td>55 \u2013 70 % of burn for early tech startups<\/td><\/tr>
      Cloud & Tools<\/strong><\/td>AWS\/Azure + SaaS seats<\/td>Aim \u2264 20 % burn; watch AWS credits expiry<\/td><\/tr>
      GTM (Go-to-Market)<\/strong><\/td>Ads + events + SDR salary<\/td>Often spikes after MVP<\/td><\/tr>
      Misc. & Buffer<\/strong><\/td>Legal, Fi-Ops, one-off fees<\/td>Keep 5\u201310 % for surprises<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Rule of thumb:<\/strong> if Headcount + Cloud<\/em> > 85 % you have no flex for GTM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
      2.1 Sheet Template<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

      \/resources\/runway_forecast_template.xlsx (linked in CTA) has:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Inputs tab: current bank, ARR, churn, planned raises.
        <\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Cost tab: enter or paste ledger with tags (HEAD, CLOUD, \u2026).
        <\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Scenarios tab: Base (expected), Stretch (hiring boost), Worst (0.8\u00d7 ARR, +20 % cloud).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        10-Minute Workflow (\u2248 300 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

        Step 1 \u00b7 Pipe Ledger \u2192 Sheet (3 min)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

        bash<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        CopyEdit<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        pip install pandas gspread<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        python ledger_to_sheet.py –file ledger.csv –sheet RUNWAY<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        ledger_to_sheet.py parses “Category” column and posts rows via Google API.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Step 2 \u00b7 Pull Velocity from SteadCAST (2 min)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

        python<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        CopyEdit<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        import requests, datetime, gspread<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        v = requests.get(“https:\/\/api.steadcast.ai\/velocity\/projectA”).json()<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        sprint_end = datetime.date.today() + datetime.timedelta(days=90)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        sheet.update(‘B5’, v[‘avg_velocity’])<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        sheet.update(‘B6’, sprint_end.strftime(‘%Y-%m-%d’))<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Velocity auto-translates to Story-points \/ week<\/em> \u2192 Dev hours<\/em> \u2192 Headcount cost<\/em> over the next six sprints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Step 3 \u00b7 Generate Scenario Chart (5 min)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

        python<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        CopyEdit<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        import matplotlib.pyplot as plt, pandas as pd<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        df = pd.read_excel(‘runway.xlsx’, sheet_name=’Scenarios’)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        plt.plot(df[‘Month’], df[‘Base’], label=’Base’)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        plt.plot(df[‘Month’], df[‘Stretch’], linestyle=’–‘)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        plt.plot(df[‘Month’], df[‘Worst’], linestyle=’:’)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        plt.axvline(x=’MVP Launch’, color=’k’)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        plt.legend(); plt.title(‘Burn Curve vs. MVP’)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        plt.savefig(‘burn_curve.png’)
        Embed burn_curve.png in your investor deck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Reading the \u201cRunway Radar\u201d (\u2248 150 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

        Sheet auto-highlights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • Red zone<\/strong> \u2013 < 90 days cash.
          <\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Amber<\/strong> \u2013 90\u2013180 days.
          <\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Green<\/strong> \u2013 > 180 days.
          <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          The roadmap overlay (imported from Jira via API) colors each sprint bar:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • Blue<\/strong> \u2013 on-track.
            <\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Grey<\/strong> \u2013 slip risk (\u2265 15 % tasks in \u201cDev-Doing\u201d).
            <\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Black<\/strong> \u2013 unscheduled backlog.
            <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            If any<\/em> sprint in Amber\/Red zone is Grey\/Black<\/em>, SteadCAST pings Slack:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            sql<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            CopyEdit<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u26a0\ufe0f  Sprint 6 slip pushes MVP day beyond cash buffer (59 days left).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Options: cut scope by 2 SP or raise bridge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Real-World Example (B2B SaaS) (\u2248 140 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

            Inputs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            • Cash on hand: $1.3 M
              <\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Burn last month: $96 k
              <\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Hiring plan: +2 devs next month.
              <\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Cloud credits expire in 60 days.
              <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

              Sheet output<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n
              • Base scenario:<\/strong> Runway 14.2 months; MVP at Month 3 safe.
                <\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Stretch (hire + credit expiry):<\/strong> Red zone at Month 8.
                <\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Worst (10 % churn):<\/strong> Red zone Month 6; gap $220 k.
                <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                Decision<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Cut AWS RDS upgrade (\u2013$6 k\/mo) and postpone 2nd dev hire \u2192 red zone extends to Month 10, enough buffer to raise Seed+.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Top 5 Pitfalls & How to Dodge Them (\u2248 170 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
                Pitfall<\/strong><\/td>Fix<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
                Treating ARR as cash<\/strong><\/td>Input cash<\/em> not bookings; SaaS prepaid can mask burn.<\/td><\/tr>
                Ignoring rev-share\/payment fees<\/td>Model payment gateway fees as 2.9 % of GMV in Cloud bucket.<\/td><\/tr>
                Forgetting renewals (IAAS, SaaS)<\/td>Tag contracts with \u201cRenew Date\u201d; template auto-adds spike.<\/td><\/tr>
                Headcount loaded at 1.0 \u00d7 salary<\/td>Use 1.25 \u00d7<\/strong> for tax\/benefits; 1.4 \u00d7 in Europe.<\/td><\/tr>
                No buffer for \u201cunknown-unknowns\u201d<\/td>Add 5 % Misc. every month; SteadCAST treats as contingency.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

                Hooking Investors with Burn Multiple (\u2248 120 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

                Burn multiple = Net burn \u00f7 Net new ARR<\/strong>
                <\/strong> Early Seed target:<\/em> 1.5\u20132.5\u00d7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Sheet calculates this automatically. In the B2B SaaS case:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n
                • Pre-MVP burn multiple: N\/A (zero ARR).
                  <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • Post-MVP Month 6: $510 k burn \u00f7 $230 k ARR = 2.2\u00d7<\/strong> \u2192 attractive.
                  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                  Add this to your deck footnotes\u2014VCs check it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  10-Minute Checklist (\u2248 60 words)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
                    \n
                  1. Copy template to Google Drive.
                    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  2. Run ledger_to_sheet.py with last 12-month CSV.
                    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  3. Plug hiring & credit expiry dates.
                    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  4. Pull SteadCAST velocity into Sheet.
                    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  5. Review red-zone warning; cut scope or cost if needed.
                    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  6. Export chart \u2192 investor deck.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                    TL;DR (\u2248 95 words) Founders run out of cash for only one reason\u2014the roadmap is longer than the runway.Below is a 10-minute Google-Sheet + Python workflow that: The sheet is pre-wired to SteadCAST so your Micro-GCC squad\u2019s velocity updates the forecast every Friday\u2014no CFO needed. Why \u201cCash \/ Monthly Burn\u201d Lies to You (\u2248 160 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-94","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-product-ops-startups"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95,"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94\/revisions\/95"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steadyrabbit.in\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}