Runway or Run Away? Forecast Burn vs. Roadmap in 10 Minutes

TL;DR (≈ 95 words)

Founders run out of cash for only one reason—the roadmap is longer than the runway.
Below is a 10-minute Google-Sheet + Python workflow that:

1. Imports your Stripe, QuickBooks, or Excel ledger.
   
2. Buckets cost into Headcount, Cloud, GTM, Misc.
   
3. Calculates runway under three burn scenarios (base, stretch, worst).
   
4. Maps the burn curve to your sprint roadmap and flags the “red zone” 90 days early.
   

The sheet is pre-wired to SteadCAST so your Micro-GCC squad’s velocity updates the forecast every Friday—no CFO needed.

Why “Cash / Monthly Burn” Lies to You (≈ 160 words)

Classic runway formula:

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Runway = Cash on hand ÷ Average monthly burn

Problems:

• Burn isn’t flat. New hires, AWS credits expiry, marketing pushes.
  
• Roadmap is lumpy. Some sprints need Flex DevOps or paid APIs.
  
• DCA (days cash ahead) means nothing if Sprint 7 demo slips a week past investor meetings.
  

What you need is a time-phased burn model with scenario bands and a roadmap overlay so you can answer:

“Can we hit the Day 90 MVP AND still have $250 k buffer for the next fundraise?”

The 4-Bucket Burn Model (≈ 180 words)

Bucket	Formula	Notes / Benchmarks
Headcount	Σ Dev + PM + Ops salary * 1.25 (tax/benefits)	55 – 70 % of burn for early tech startups
Cloud & Tools	AWS/Azure + SaaS seats	Aim ≤ 20 % burn; watch AWS credits expiry
GTM (Go-to-Market)	Ads + events + SDR salary	Often spikes after MVP
Misc. & Buffer	Legal, Fi-Ops, one-off fees	Keep 5–10 % for surprises

Rule of thumb: if Headcount + Cloud > 85 % you have no flex for GTM.

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2.1 Sheet Template

/resources/runway_forecast_template.xlsx (linked in CTA) has:

• Inputs tab: current bank, ARR, churn, planned raises.
  
• Cost tab: enter or paste ledger with tags (HEAD, CLOUD, …).
  
• Scenarios tab: Base (expected), Stretch (hiring boost), Worst (0.8× ARR, +20 % cloud).

10-Minute Workflow (≈ 300 words)

Step 1 · Pipe Ledger → Sheet (3 min)

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pip install pandas gspread

python ledger_to_sheet.py –file ledger.csv –sheet RUNWAY

ledger_to_sheet.py parses “Category” column and posts rows via Google API.

Step 2 · Pull Velocity from SteadCAST (2 min)

python

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import requests, datetime, gspread

v = requests.get(“https://api.steadcast.ai/velocity/projectA”).json()

sprint_end = datetime.date.today() + datetime.timedelta(days=90)

sheet.update(‘B5’, v[‘avg_velocity’])

sheet.update(‘B6’, sprint_end.strftime(‘%Y-%m-%d’))

Velocity auto-translates to Story-points / week → Dev hours → Headcount cost over the next six sprints.

Step 3 · Generate Scenario Chart (5 min)

python

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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt, pandas as pd

df = pd.read_excel(‘runway.xlsx’, sheet_name=’Scenarios’)

plt.plot(df[‘Month’], df[‘Base’], label=’Base’)

plt.plot(df[‘Month’], df[‘Stretch’], linestyle=’–‘)

plt.plot(df[‘Month’], df[‘Worst’], linestyle=’:’)

plt.axvline(x=’MVP Launch’, color=’k’)

plt.legend(); plt.title(‘Burn Curve vs. MVP’)

plt.savefig(‘burn_curve.png’)
Embed burn_curve.png in your investor deck.

Reading the “Runway Radar” (≈ 150 words)

Sheet auto-highlights:

• Red zone – < 90 days cash.
  
• Amber – 90–180 days.
  
• Green – > 180 days.
  

The roadmap overlay (imported from Jira via API) colors each sprint bar:

• Blue – on-track.
  
• Grey – slip risk (≥ 15 % tasks in “Dev-Doing”).
  
• Black – unscheduled backlog.
  

If any sprint in Amber/Red zone is Grey/Black, SteadCAST pings Slack:

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⚠️  Sprint 6 slip pushes MVP day beyond cash buffer (59 days left).

Options: cut scope by 2 SP or raise bridge.

Real-World Example (B2B SaaS) (≈ 140 words)

Inputs

• Cash on hand: $1.3 M
  
• Burn last month: $96 k
  
• Hiring plan: +2 devs next month.
  
• Cloud credits expire in 60 days.
  

Sheet output

• Base scenario: Runway 14.2 months; MVP at Month 3 safe.
  
• Stretch (hire + credit expiry): Red zone at Month 8.
  
• Worst (10 % churn): Red zone Month 6; gap $220 k.
  

Decision

Cut AWS RDS upgrade (–$6 k/mo) and postpone 2nd dev hire → red zone extends to Month 10, enough buffer to raise Seed+.

Top 5 Pitfalls & How to Dodge Them (≈ 170 words)

Pitfall	Fix
Treating ARR as cash	Input cash not bookings; SaaS prepaid can mask burn.
Ignoring rev-share/payment fees	Model payment gateway fees as 2.9 % of GMV in Cloud bucket.
Forgetting renewals (IAAS, SaaS)	Tag contracts with “Renew Date”; template auto-adds spike.
Headcount loaded at 1.0 × salary	Use 1.25 × for tax/benefits; 1.4 × in Europe.
No buffer for “unknown-unknowns”	Add 5 % Misc. every month; SteadCAST treats as contingency.

Hooking Investors with Burn Multiple (≈ 120 words)

Burn multiple = Net burn ÷ Net new ARR
Early Seed target: 1.5–2.5×.

Sheet calculates this automatically. In the B2B SaaS case:

• Pre-MVP burn multiple: N/A (zero ARR).
  
• Post-MVP Month 6: $510 k burn ÷ $230 k ARR = 2.2× → attractive.
  

Add this to your deck footnotes—VCs check it.

10-Minute Checklist (≈ 60 words)

1. Copy template to Google Drive.
   
2. Run ledger_to_sheet.py with last 12-month CSV.
   
3. Plug hiring & credit expiry dates.
   
4. Pull SteadCAST velocity into Sheet.
   
5. Review red-zone warning; cut scope or cost if needed.
   
6. Export chart → investor deck.